‘Golden age’ of gas ending – IEA

Lazy eyes listen


According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2023, global demand for natural gas is predicted to peak as early as 2030.

Since 2011, global petrol consumption has climbed by approximately 2% each year on average. However, experts at the Paris-based agency predict that growth would decrease to less than 0.4% from now until the end of the decade.

“The Golden Age of Gas is Nearing an End,” declares the forecast.

According to the survey, natural gas utilisation has already peaked in the power and building sectors, with expansions for power plants and space heating boilers experiencing muted demand. These two industries are among the largest users of natural gas, accounting for 39% and 21% of total consumption, respectively.

Their reduction in natural gas use is enough to cause overall demand to peak by 2030.

The high point for natural gas power capacity additions was in 2002, when they exceeded 100 gigawatt (GW) and made up around 65% of total annual capacity additions, according to the IEA, which marked the drop at less than 30 GW in 2022.

However, despite a slowing in yearly additions, the global installed capacity of natural gas power has continued to grow over time, according to the agency, stressing that gas differs from coal in this regard, where installed capacity is expected to decrease in the future.

“Natural gas demand in the power sector nevertheless declines from today until 2050, with a particularly strong dip in the 2030s, when co-firing in gas-fired power plants begins to be deployed at scale,” according to the paper.

According to the IEA, the increase in natural gas demand recorded in advanced economies in 2021 did not last long, and fell below pre-pandemic levels the following year.

According to the analysis, demand would continue to fall, more than offsetting further rise in supply by 2030.