Handicapping USA 2020 Election


Behold the 2020 Democratic Nominee and the Next United States President.

The democrats are going through the nomination process now and on this day it is merely beginning. There are now four completed contests and some minority candidates have been eliminated by primarily white electorates and some white candidates have been eliminated by the black voters of South Carolina.  The candidates left will be determined by a more diverse American states.

Let’s look back before we can look forward.

Joe Biden (77) Moderate (M) Cory Booker (51) (M) Pete Buttigieg (38) (M), Joaquin Castro (46), (M) Jay Inslee (69), John Delaney (57), Tulsi Gabbard (39), (M) Kirsten Gillibrand (53), (M) Kamala Harris (56), (M) John Hickenlooper (68), (M) Amy Klobuchar(60), (M) Beto O’Rourke (48), (M) Tim Ryan (46), Bernie Sanders (79) Liberal (L), Eric Swalwell, Elizabeth Warren (71), (L), Seth Moulton, Marianne Williamson, Andrew Yang (45), (M),Mike Bloomberg (78) (M)

Twenty Democrats started this presidential election and could be grouped into two categories – Moderates (M) and Liberals (L). They range in age from thirty-eight to seventy-nine, with 14 men and 6 women among them. Four were minorities (black 2, Asian 1, Latino, 2) the rest are classified as whites including 2 Jews.

Now to the future.

Democratic nomination process at the convention starts with voting by only the Pledged Delegates (those who won in their states during the primaries and caucuses). If this fails to produce a candidate with 1991 votes, then they go to the second ballot and the Super Delegates (about 700 mostly governors, senators, representatives, members of DNC, etc.) will join. If this also fails to give any candidate 1991 votes, the third ballot is called for. This can be called “horse trading”. Candidates start negotiating with rivals as pledged delegates are no longer bound to the primary victory. This will necessarily produce the 1991 votes needed for the nomination. But it can go for days as negotiation takes time.

Democrats appeal to diverse population, educated suburban women (25%) blacks (25%) Latinos (15%) whites (35%). The candidate who can win the support of two of these groups will be on his/her way to be nominated.

Given the nominating process and the Major groups of the Democratic Party, this how I select who the nominee will be.

Sanders will win step 1 because he is likely to have the highest number of pledged delegates but will not have the required 1991 delegates. Biden will win step 2 because Super delegates will break in large numbers for him. He is a true democrat, has been a representative, a senator and the VP of the popular Obama administration. But he will not have the all-important 1991 votes. In step 3 Biden will promise blacks to select Kamala Harris (56) as his VP. KH will remove the age question for Biden. He will also promise suburban women that his VP will be a woman. He may not mention Kamala Harris by name. The whites already know he is one of them. Biden’s more moderate views will appeal to the wider electorate during the general election.

Sanders on the other hand will appeal to younger elements of the party, will promise a female VP (probably Elizabeth Warren or Kirsten Gillibrand (53)) KG will remove the age question for Sanders. He will have nothing to offer blacks. His call for revolution and his affiliation as an Independent Socialist will frighten a lot of people during the general election.

Therefore Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will represent the Democratic Party at the general election against Trump/Pence. The Democrats will win 55/45 on November 3, 2020.

Save this analysis for your records and let’s talk on November 5, 2020

Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba

Boston, Massachusetts

March 3, 2020