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NewsRescue
According to the 2017 Chief Economists Outlook, released on Monday, leading economists surveyed by the World Economic Forum are significantly more enthusiastic about the benefits of AI in high-income countries than in developing economies, and see the technology increasing inequality.
Economists predict geo-economic fragmentation to intensify this year as the global economy grapples with headwinds from tight financial conditions and geopolitical rifts, as well as rapid advances in generative AI.
The majority of individuals polled believe that the productivity benefits from AI will become economically meaningful in wealthy countries within the next five years. The prospect of generative AI causing a drop in trust across both high-income and low-income countries this year is less widely held.
Economists anticipate that AI will provide benefits such as increased production efficiency and innovation. However, the impact on living standards is more varied.
The study found a discrepancy in expected outcomes among different income levels about the influence of generative AI on productivity during the next year: In high-income economies, 79% predict output efficiency to improve, compared to 38% in low-income nations.
No respondents said productivity benefits will never materialize, reflecting an expectation that AI will have a sustained and far-reaching impact on the global economy,” the report stated. According to the most optimistic scenario examined in the WEF survey, the widespread deployment of AI could help raise global output by as much as 30% by the end of the century.
When asked about the regions poised to see a significant increase in productivity from higher AI adoption, the economists said they expect the US, China, Europe, and East Asia and the Pacific to benefit the most in the next three years.
According to the projection, annual income in the banking and pharmaceutical industries might climb by up to 5%. Improvements in research and development, customer service, marketing and sales, and software engineering are predicted to account for nearly three-quarters of all AI-enabled productivity increases across industries.
The optimistic projections about the economic benefits of AI have been followed by widespread concern about the technology’s potential ramifications for jobs, inequality, and society as a whole. Respondents were concerned about the threats of automation, job loss, and degradation. Almost three-quarters of the chief economists polled do not expect a net positive impact on employment in low-income countries, while another 17% are unsure. In other words, most people anticipate to be displaced, according to the survey.
