According to a newly released survey, female voters have pushed US President Joe Biden ahead of Republican nominee Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential campaign.
A Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday shows the incumbent Democrat leading Trump 50-44 in a hypothetical one-on-one showdown. When Quinnipiac ran the same poll just a month ago, Biden led 47-46, making the race effectively a tossup.
Female voters now favour Biden 58-36, up from 53-41 in December, accounting for the majority of the increase. Male voters continued to prefer Trump by a 53-42 advantage, up from 51-41 previously.
“The gender demographic tells a story to keep an eye on,” Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy said. “Propelled by female voters in just the past few weeks, the head-to-head tie with Trump morphs into a modest lead for Biden.”
However, when the other candidates on the November ballot are included, the contest becomes more competitive. According to the poll, Biden has 39% support in comparison to the entire field, while Trump has 37%. Independent and third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein have support from 14%, 3%, and 2% of voters, respectively.
Trump is clearly the leading Republican contender to oppose Biden in the November election, and other recent surveys have placed him ahead of the incumbent. For example, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week revealed that Trump leads Biden 40-34. Respondents to the poll overwhelmingly agreed that they didn’t want a replay of the Biden-Trump 2020 contest, with 67% saying they “want someone new.”
Trump’s last remaining opponent for the Republican nomination, former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, would lose handily to Biden, Quinnipiac found. In a hypothetical matchup with Haley and the rest of the field, Biden would beat the Republican by a 36-29 margin, with Kennedy winning 21% of the votes. Haley would defeat Biden in a one-on-one matchup, the survey showed, but she would lose when other candidates are included because of her relatively weak support from Republicans.
Quinnipiac is one of the most well-known polling organisations in the United States, however it, like other major researchers, incorrectly anticipated that Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. Quinnipiac also got it wrong in 2020, overestimating Biden’s margin of victory over Trump and incorrectly projecting that he would win critical states such as Florida and Ohio.
