The Arab Barometer survey, conducted right before the October 7th conflict in Gaza, revealed that a significant number of Palestinians, 31% in Gaza and 21% in the West Bank, were considering emigration. This data highlights the enduring challenges and the harsh realities faced by those in conflict zones.
Just before October 7, 2023, Dr. Amaney Jamal, Dean of the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research conducted the survey in Gaza. Dr. Jamal, who grew up in Ramallah, West Bank, found that 44 percent of Gazan youth aged 18 to 29 were considering leaving, accounting for a third of Gaza’s population. This demographic, with an average age around 20, has shown increasing openness to armed group formation, reflecting growing militancy among the youth.
Motivations for Emigration
Economic adversity is the foremost reason driving Palestinians to consider leaving, with political instability, insufficient educational opportunities, security issues, and corruption also significant factors. These issues illustrate the complex challenges pushing residents toward the prospect of resettlement.
Demographics
Of those who wish to leave the West Bank and Gaza, the highest numbers are youth aged 18-29, with 28% of youth in this age group desiring to leave the West Bank and a whopping 44%, almost half of Gaza youth desiring to emigrate. Males were more likely to wish to leave.
Preferred Destinations
The survey indicates a preference for emigration to Turkey, Germany, Canada, the United States, and Qatar, which are seen as offering greater stability and economic opportunities.
Barriers to Emigration
Significant obstacles hamper these emigration aspirations. Egypt, receiving substantial U.S. aid in the billions in a deal made with Israel since the aftermath of the 7-day war, maintains strict border closure with Gaza, with an government enabled hustle that bills up to $20,000 for crossing, an unaffordable sum for most. Similarly, Jordan, home to over 5 million Palestinian refugees since the Nakba exodus, exhibits increasing reluctance to accept new asylum seekers from Palestine, influenced by demographic and political pressures.
See: What does it take to flee Gaza? Thousands of dollars, paid to an Egyptian broker
Population Impact of the Conflict
The devastating conflict has likely shifted these dynamics further, with initial estimates indicating a reduction in Gaza’s population from 2.2 million to approximately 1.7 to 1.8 million, a direct and indirect result of the conflict. This demographic shift may intensify the remaining population’s emigration desires.
Economic Strain from Lack of Remittances
The survey also finds that most Palestinians do not receive financial support from family abroad, adding another layer of economic strain for those contemplating emigration.
International Response Needed
The survey’s findings call for heightened international attention to the plight of Palestinians considering emigration as a viable option due to the cumulative impact of prolonged conflict, economic hardship, and restricted mobility. The international community’s role in addressing these challenges is crucial in providing relief and realistic options for those seeking a new beginning.
What Will New Poll Numbers Be?
Prior to the October 7, 2023 latest eruption, 31 percent of the entire Gazan population expressed a desire to emigrate. Itamar Marcus of Palestinian Media Watch suggests that post-war, this number could nearly double, potentially rising to 60 percent. He argues that the real barrier to emigration is not a lack of desire among Gazans but political and ideological constraints imposed by the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, who fear losing control. Marcus believes that for Gazans to achieve a better future, President Trump should establish a mechanism allowing those wishing to leave to do so with U.S. support and protection.
Marcus asks, “What eighteen-year-old wants to be told that you’re going to be living in a tent or in a caravan for the next ten years of your life? You’re only going to start your life when you’re 28 years old. The Gazans are going to want to leave. The question is, where are they going to go? Where are they going to be spread out? According to that original poll, the majority of them want to move to Turkey. Will Turkey, a so-called American ally, and will the United States, be able to put enough pressure on Turkey that these people will go to Turkey and be welcomed in Turkey, where most of them want to go.”
In the midst of escalating frustration in 2015, a poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, in June of 2015, in the aftermath of the 2014 Gaza War, known as Operation Protective Edge, revealed a significant desire to emigrate among Gazans. According to the survey findings from 1200 polled, “half of the respondents stated that they are considering emigration from the Gaza Strip.” This marked the highest percentage recorded in the poll’s history, underscoring the deepening discontent and challenging living conditions in the region at that time.
With the Gaza Strip now transformed into rubble from its previous state as a highly developed yet confined coastal strip, the potential for recovery and rebuilding seems daunting, possibly taking more than a decade. This drastic change prompts a crucial question: How will these circumstances affect the intentions of its residents to emigrate in future surveys?
Arab Leaders Meet in Saudi To Discuss Gaza’s Future
Arab leaders are currently convening to discuss reconstruction plans for Gaza, which the UN has estimated at over $50 billion, proposing a strategy that excludes Hamas from governance. This initiative was stimulated by a proposal by US president Trump aiming to relocate Palestinians from the war-torn enclave, with the U.S. planning to transform the Gaza Strip into an investment Riviera.
