According to polls published on Sunday by the New York Times/Siena College and CBS/YouGov, US President Joe Biden would likely lose a rematch against his Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, if the election were held now.
According to the New York Times poll, Trump is significantly ahead of Biden in five of the six critical’swing states,’ with an 11-point lead in Nevada and smaller margins in Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Only Wisconsin favoured Biden, and by only two points.
Two-thirds of respondents said the United States was heading in the wrong direction, and a majority of respondents across all demographics said Biden’s policies had personally harmed them. Nearly three-quarters (71%) of respondents said the president was too old to serve effectively, including more than half of his supporters.
Close to six in ten (59%) likely voters trusted Trump over Biden on the economy – rated as the most important issue of the 2024 election by a majority of respondents – and the preference for Trump held true across all education and income levels, ages, and genders.
Just 2% of respondents – and less than 1% of those under 30 – claimed the economy was ‘excellent’, potentially explaining Biden’s flagging support among young voters, who overwhelmingly chose him in 2020 but favored him by just one point over Trump in Sunday’s poll.
The CBS poll put Trump three points ahead of Biden, echoing the New York Times’ findings that voters are pinning their economic hopes on the Republican. Nearly half (45%) of those polled said they’d be better off financially if Trump were re-elected, compared to only 18% who predicted a bright economic future under Biden, even though a majority (51%) expected both candidates’ policies to favour the wealthy over the working and middle classes. At the same time, 48% expected to be worse off financially if Biden won a second term, while 32% expected Trump to be worse off.
Trump was also perceived as less aggressive. Nearly half (47%) of respondents believed he would increase global peace and stability, compared to 31% who did not.
Voters’ preferences were overwhelmingly for avoiding foreign wars, with 72% agreeing that the US should “try to stay out of other countries’ affairs” and only 35% favouring military power projection over the promotion of American ideals as a foreign policy goal. Nonetheless, a slim majority (55%) supported sending military aid to both Israel and Ukraine (53%).
