How much of Iran’s military capability has been destroyed after 35 days of bombing? The answer depends on which part of the US government you ask.

The White House and Defense Secretary Hegseth claim a 90 percent reduction in Iran’s long-range launch capability. US intelligence agencies, according to a CNN report cited by multiple international outlets, put the figure at approximately 50 percent. Reuters previously reported one-third verifiably destroyed. Israel claims 70 percent neutralized.

The median of these estimates is roughly 40 to 55 percent degradation. After five weeks of the most intensive American air campaign since Iraq 2003, Iran retains approximately half its arsenal.

Iran’s short-range cruise missiles along its coastline and its naval drone fleet remain largely untouched — which explains why the Strait of Hormuz blockade remains effective and why a Kuwaiti refinery was hit by a drone this week.

The gap between what the White House says and what its own intelligence community assesses is not a minor discrepancy. It is the difference between a war that is nearly won and a war that is far from over.

PressTV’s claims of decimating US assets are propaganda. But the kernel of truth in Tehran’s defiance is that Iran has demonstrated capabilities — sustained Hormuz disruption, regional proxy strikes, drone attacks on Gulf infrastructure — that no one expected to survive this long.

The generals who might have raised these concerns internally are being fired. Whether that is coincidence or consequence is a question the numbers themselves answer.